SupplyChainX | The Thanksgiving Turkey Rush

11.18.16

Turkeys are a staple of American Thanksgiving feasts -- but overwhelming annual demand for the festive bird presents a unique challenge for the retail supply chain.

At the end of November, Americans across the country participate in one of the year’s most highly anticipated meals; we pile dining room tables high with turkey and stuffing, mashed potatoes and gravy, corn and cranberries -- and don’t forget the pumpkin pie. But arguably the most important fixture of the Thanksgiving feast is the bird itself.

Over 45 million turkeys are consumed each year during the Thanksgiving holiday season. An average turkey weighs about 16 pounds, which means that we collectively chow down on about about 730 million pounds of delicious turkey every Thanksgiving. Many families reserve their turkey months in advance, pre-ordering the exact size and variety of bird they’re after before the grocery store’s supply runs dry. Many dedicated hosts even take time off of work to prepare for the holiday meal.

Somehow, suppliers and retailers manage to keep up with the nation’s massive appetite year after year. So how do they do it?

The Nuts and Bolts of Our Cornucopia

In reality, meeting the national demand for turkey is not a perfect science. Experts cross-reference current market trends and population statistics with historical data in order to predict the level of demand for the upcoming season -- and retailers typically plan up to six months in advance to fulfill the needs of their customers.

In addition to the considerations necessary to properly stock an inanimate product for the holiday surge, live turkeys pose a number of unique challenges when it comes to effective supply chain management. If seasonal demand forecasts are too low, the market will likely experience a supply shortage because eggs need time to incubate and turkey reproduction cannot be accelerated. On the other hand, if the forecast overestimates demand for turkeys, it’s possible that the industry will come out of the holiday season with a massive surplus on its hands -- resulting in a large quantity of time, money, and food product wasted.

In the case of an emergency, the industry can always fall back on its reserve stock of frozen turkeys. The freezing process extends shelf-life by significant margins; in fact, some of the birds bought from freezers this year will be up to three years old. And although frozen stocks can help prop up a struggling poultry supply chain in the event of an unexpected crisis, it’s only a short-term solution -- not to mention that the vast majority of Americans prefer fresh turkey anyhow.

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Turkey Trouble, Past and Present

Unfortunately, transporting fresh poultry comes with its own set of complex logistical challenges. Live turkeys must first be carefully transported to the slaughterhouse, processed, and then shipped as quickly as possible to retailers in a temperature-controlled truck. Luckily, new technologies are making the process more efficient and precise than ever before, which in turn is keeping costs down and taste buds happy for millions of Americans on Turkey Day.

But for suppliers and retailers in the Thanksgiving supply chain, the issues don’t end with logistical operations -- historically speaking, the industry has had to deal with a variety of unforeseen crises, including catastrophic weather events and even a mass outbreak of Bird Flu. The 2015 epidemic was the largest avian influenza crisis in United States history, and wiped out much of the Midwest’s poultry supply. Over 14 states were affected, and the flu led to the deaths and/or scheduled euthanizations of more than 21 million birds, 3.3 million of which were turkeys. Many suppliers were forced to dip into their stock of frozen turkeys to compensate for the loss of live birds.

But despite all of the complexities and potential issues that can arise in this delicate supply chain, our collective craving for good eats has proved more potent than the inherent challenges that surround it. Barring a new law decreeing ostrich meat as the new national Thanksgiving Day food, it’s probably safe to assume that our supply of turkey won’t be running out anytime soon.